Saturday, 21 December 2013

Bet 104

104.) Sunderland v Norwich - LAY 0-0 @ 11

Maybe a slightly adventurous bet here. But I've took into account that is a vital game for bottom of the league Sunderland at home against one of their relegation rivals. Norwich have been leaking plenty of goals and look poor defensively away from home in recent weeks (although they did beat WBA in their last away game) and Sunderland have looked improved since the arrival of Gus Poyet as manager. Slight worry with this bet is there is no standout goalscorer on either side. Sunderland do have Fletcher on the bench though and will surely come if the game is still 0-0 in the second half.

Monday, 9 December 2013

Bet 103

103.) Sunderland v Tottenham - LAY Dembele Anytime Goalscorer @ 14.5

Noticed that Dembele for Tottenham rarely scores many goals and was playing in a holding midfield role for this game. Also noted Sunderland's defensive performance against Man City at home and couldn't see Tottenham scoring many goals here given their struggles infront of goal.

Sunderland 1-2 Tottenham - Dembele didn't score and was subbed after "73 (+£1.42)

A little bit of panic with this bet because a Dembele cross was deflected by O'Shea into his own goal. Bar that though Dembele didn't see sight of goal and was subbed before the end, which is always a plus when laying someone to score. 3/5

Bet 102

102.) Crystal Palace v Cardiff - BACK Under 4.5 goals @ 1.09

Again my favourite bet of mine at the minute picking two teams, in betting under 4.5 goals in games involving two teams who struggle to score goals and who's strength lie in their defence.

Crystal Palace 2-0 Cardiff (+£1.68)

Happy with this bet, a couple of couple of goals was about as many as I was expecting. Crystal Palace look much imporved of late. 4/5

Bet 101

101.) Man United v Newcastle - BACK Under 3.5 goals (IP "51) @ 1.03

Man United were clearly struggling in this game and didn't look a great threat going forward. I deemed four goals here very unlikely.

Man United 0-1 Newcastle (+£0.73)

A good bet and one that I expect to win given the short odds. Newcastle scored and there was the potential there for Man United to come back and possible score some goals, but it never happened. 4/5

Thursday, 5 December 2013


Here's my first review after 100 bets of this challenge:

Current Bank: £77.96
P/L: -£22.04

No. of bets: 100
Winning Bets: 92
Losing Bets: 8

Average bet rating (from Bet 88 to 100): 3.5
1s - 1
2s - 4
3s - 1
4s - 2
5s - 5

Losing Bets
20.) Malaga v Dortmund - LAY 0-0 @ 11.5
35.) Basel v Tottenham - BACK Sending Off? No @ 1.33
41.) Fulham v Chelsea - BACK Fulham (+2.5) @ 1.14
42.) Sunderland v Everton - LAY 1-0 @ 11.5
69.) Hull v Aston Villa - LAY 0-0 @ 9.2
73.) Aston Villa v Tottenham - LAY Townsend AGS @ 5.6
87.) Man City v CSKA Moscow - LAY Over 6.5 goals @ 18
95.) Mexico v New Zealand - LAY Over 5.5 goals @ 11.5

I've only been keeping a diary of bets since bet 88 so I don't have the full written evidence to full analysis my performance. But the 3.5 rating may suggest I'm fairly happy with the bets I've had since I started keeping note but I don't think it does. I want to keep this rating as high as possible of course but the key perhaps is to avoid bets lower than 3 and any bet rating given less 3 or less is a bad one or a questionable one in my eyes. I should mostly me aiming for 4s and 5s. From the bets I notice 6 out of the 13 bets I have given a 3 rating or less, I need to improve on this, although I realise it is impossible for every bet to run smoothly I'd like to see the majority do so because this indicates good betting choices and that will equal profit in the long-run.

Having looked back through the losing bets I do notice some common themes. 4 out of the 8 losing bets are from games outside of the Premiership, Bet 20 and 87 are both Champions League, Bet 35 is a Europa League game and 95 a World Cup qualifier. The majority of my bets have been from Premiership games, losing bets from other competition are over-represented here and a big reason for me operating at a loss. The lessons here should really be to stick to what you know best and don't bet on games you little knowledge in (Bets 20 and 95 fall foul to this). In addition a few of the bets fall outside the odds range I'm trying to stay clear from now Bets 35, 41 and 73 are all bets at odds which are probably too short for this challenge because I'm staking a large proportion of my bank each time. I have tried reverse logic in a few of my bets as in going against what even I expected hoping that the odds had taken this into account too much. In hindsight the Bet 69 and 87 look particularly poor in this regard as the games ended with results which weren't entirely unpredictable given what had happened previously.

True to say you are always looking for value you with your bets. But I always feel more comfortable when you actually have a great confidence in that thing happening. I have a particularly good record with the Under 4.5 goals market having got 12 out of 12 correct so far.

Wednesday, 4 December 2013

Bet 100

100.) Stoke v Cardiff - BACK Under 4.5 goals @ 1.10

This is a game that screams not many goals at you. My only slight reservation is that Robert Huth is missing for Stoke and he is a key component of their defence. But the strengths of both these teams lie in the defensive work, hard-work and set-pieces. Both teams lack a consistent goalscorer in their team and I think each others strengths look likely to cancel each other out. It is difficult to see anything other than a close, tight game with not many goals here. For some reason this game being on a midweek seems to me increase the likelihood of this, I'm not even sure there's evidence to back this up but I've always had the intuition that sometimes midweek games have a greater tendency to fizzle out into low-scoring games.

Stoke 0-0 Cardiff (+£1.80)

Game went just as planned really, two teams did cancel each other out and very few goal-scoring chances in the game. 5/5

Tuesday, 3 December 2013

Bet 99

99.) Crystal Palace v West Ham - BACK Under 4.5 goals @ 1.12

I can't forsee many goals in this one. Crystal Palace have improved defensively recently and have only conceded one in their last three games. Tony Pulis always builds his team on strong defence and keeping it tight will surely be a large part of the plan for this game against West Ham. The visitors struggle for goals away from home and rarely score more than one. Although they have impressed me this season West Ham I think this will be a tough game for them against a Crystal Palace who I don't think is as bad as the odds suggest. More than four goals seems unlikely because Palace have struggled for goals all season, the only way I see this happening if West Ham put in a really good performance and the Palace from earlier in the season turns up.

Crystal Palace 1-0 West Ham (+£2.11)

The game went rather like I predicted with it being a tight game and not many chances. There was a few disallowed goals in this game but my bet was never in any sort of threat. 5/5